Obama can still build 2nd term legacy
Many a modern president has lost momentum and suffered what are termed “scandals” in his second term. President Barack Obama’s current problems are part of that tradition. But with the exception of Richard Nixon, scandals have not proven fatal. Indeed, Ronald Reagan’s Iran-Contra scandal and Bill Clinton’s impeachment over the Monica Lewinsky affair were far more serious than what we know so far about Obama’s involvement in Benghazi, the Internal Revenue Service or subpoenas of records of reporters’ calls. Yet Reagan and Clinton finished their second terms as popular presidents.
America’s founding fathers created a system of government deliberately designed to protect liberties rather than be efficient. They feared giving the chief executive too much power and constrained the president with checks and balances to limit his actions. As one wag put it, the system ensured that King George III could not rule over us, nor for that matter, could anyone else.
Source: CNN
Work With China, Don’t Contain It
CITING an escalating dispute over islands in the East China Sea, The Economist warned last week that “China and Japan are sliding toward war.” That assessment may be too alarmist, but the tensions have bolstered the efforts of some American analysts who have urged a policy to “contain” China.
During a recent visit to China, I was struck by how many Chinese officials believe such a policy is already in place and is the central purpose of President Obama’s “pivot” toward Asia. “The pivot is a very stupid choice,” Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations, declared publicly. “The United States has achieved nothing and only annoyed China. China can’t be contained,” he added.
Source: The New York Times
The World in 2030
What will the world look like two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its guess: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.
The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power.” This reflects four “megatrends”: individual empowerment and the growth of a global middle class; diffusion of power from states to informal networks and coalitions; demographic changes, owing to urbanization, migration, and aging; and increased demand for food, water, and energy.
Each trend is changing the world and “largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia’s weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of ‘democratization’ at the international and domestic level.” The US will remain “first among equals” in hard and soft power, but “the ‘unipolar moment’ is over.”
Source: project-syndicate.org
The Obama Doctrine’s First Term
ASPEN—Public-opinion polls in the United States indicate a close presidential election in November. While President Barack Obama outpolls the Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, on foreign policy, slow economic growth and high unemployment—issues that are far more salient in US elections—favor Romney. And, even on foreign policy, Obama’s critics complain that he has failed to implement the transformational initiatives that he promised four years ago. Are they right?
Source: project-syndicate.org
Romney versus Obama
While the presidential primary elections in the United States are not over, Mitt Romney is now almost certain to be the party’s nominee to face Democratic President Barack Obama in November.
(Project Syndicate, May 10, 2012)
Source: project-syndicate.org
What’s Wrong with Transformational Leadership?
This year’s presidential campaign in the United States has been marked by calls from Barack Obama’s would-be Republican challengers for a radical transformation of American foreign policy. Campaigns are always more extreme than the eventual reality, but countries should be wary of calls for transformational change. Things do not always work out as intended.
(Project Syndicate, March 8, 2012)
Source: project-syndicate.org
Charisma We Can Believe in
A leadership transition is scheduled in two major autocracies in 2012. Neither is likely to be a surprise. Xi Jinping is set to replace Hu Jintao as President in China, and, in Russia, Vladimir Putin has announced that he will reclaim the presidency from Dmitri Medvedev. Among the world’s democracies, political outcomes this year are less predictable. Nicolas Sarkozy faces a difficult presidential re-election campaign in France, as does Barack Obama in the United States.
(Project Syndicate, January 9, 2012)
Source: project-syndicate.org
Obama’s Pacific Pivot
Asia’s return to the center of world affairs is the great power shift of the twenty-first century. In 1750, Asia had roughly three-fifths of the world’s population and accounted for three-fifths of global output. By 1900, after the Industrial Revolution in Europe and America, Asia’s share of global output had shrunk to one-fifth. By 2050, Asia will be well on its way back to where it was 300 years earlier.
(Project Syndicate, December 6, 2011)
Source: project-syndicate.org
Democracy’s Drama in Terrorism’s Theater
President George W. Bush was famous for proclaiming democracy promotion as a central focus of American foreign policy. He was not alone in this rhetoric. Most US presidents since Woodrow Wilson have made similar statements.
(Project Syndicate, August 4, 2011)
Source: project-syndicate.org
Syria Can Prove that Sanctions Do Work
As the death toll in Syria approached 1,000, President Barack Obama finally announced sanctions against the regime. His move stopped Americans doing business with President Bashar al-Assad, along with certain relatives and officials, and froze their US assets. Cynics scoffed, repeating the conventional wisdom that sanctions don’t work. In fact they can make a big difference and, with Syrian violence worsening, the time is right for more.
(Financial Times, June 8, 2011)
Source: ft.com
